The National Hockey League’s scheduling process strikes me as a laborious task. Cheap Fake Air Max 97 . The people responsible for creating the thirty team schedules have to take into account things like venue availability, travel burden, associated costs of travel, and competitive balance, all while trying to squeeze 1,230 games into a seven-month window. One of the things I’ve always found most interesting is how the league attempts to mitigate the number of back-to-back situations (not so eloquently referred to as “schedule losses” in NHL and NBA circles), a considerable slice of the league’s larger fight with competitive balance. To the league’s credit, Dirk Hoag’s work suggests that the league does try to schedule a comparable number of back-to-back situations for every franchise. Now, the eyeball test has long been damning of team performance on the second-half of back-to-backs, and I think that’s largely why the league has really made a concerted effort to balance the number of schedule losses around the league. The data substantiates what the eyeball test has told us for so long – teams on no rest struggle considerably relative to league norms, considerably so when those back-to-backs come on the road. Seven years of available data substantiates what the eyeball test has told us for so long – teams on no rest struggle considerably relative to league norms. Below, I have compiled Score-Adjusted Fenwick%, 5-on-5 Goal%, and Regulation/OT Win% for teams in back-to-back situations. They are slotted next to your league-average rates, to illustrate the drop-off between the two. (Score-Adjusted Fenwick% is a measure of 5-on-5 unblocked shot attempts, weighted for score, comparing results to league averages based on game score.) The Value of Rest Score-Adjusted Fenwick% Goal% Regulation/OT Win% Back-to-Back Home 51.0% 51.0% 53.0% All Home 52.0% 52.0% 56.0% Back-to-Back Road 47.0% 46.0% 41.0% All Road 48.0% 49.0% 44.0% So, teams without rest against teams with rest of ranging length are going to underperform – we see a three percentage drop-off in regulation/overtime win percentage for both home and road teams, which really is the smoking gun. It’s also hard to miss that possession and goal metrics slide in both states, too. Home teams drop a full percentage point on both fronts. Road teams drop a percentage point in possession rates, and three percentage points in goal rates. But, back-to-back situations – or “schedule losses” -- aren’t the only instance where a team is disadvantaged. The theory isn’t just that teams devoid of rest are at a disadvantage. It’s that teams disproportionately rested to the opposition are at a disadvantage, in which back-to-back situations are only a small part of a large sample. Let’s change gears and turn to rest differentials. We can pull data for how teams perform with three days favorable rest, two days favorable rest, one day favorable rest, and so forth. If our theory holds true, performance – be it by possession rates, goal rates, or win rates – should deteriorate as rest becomes less advantageous, and travel becomes more frequent. Over the same seven years of data, here’s how home teams performed over various rest differentials. Home Team Rest Advantage 2007-2014 Rest Advantage Score-Adjusted Fenwick% Goal% Regulation/OT Win% 3 or more day deficit 50.9% 48.3% 52.3% 2-day deficit 51.1% 50.6% 54.9% 1-day deficit 51.6% 51.9% 54.2% Even 51.3% 52.0% 55.3% One-day advantage 52.1% 53.4% 58.9% Two-day advantage 52.6% 54.0% 58.3% 3 or more day advantage 51.9% 51.7% 51.6% I think this graph is about as telling as it gets. As you increase a home team’s rest advantage, their possession rates, goal rates, and win rates all spike. The inverse, of course, is true for road teams – as they see rest become more unfavourable, possession rates decline, goal rates decline, and win rates decline. Again, this gets very much back to what our eyes tell us – that teams who have rest advantages generally play a better hockey game, and teams that are fatigued generally play a worse hockey game. More importantly, it signifies that not all games are created equal. A home team with a two-game rest disadvantage is only expected to control 51.09% of the play, 50.58% of the 5-on-5 goals, and win 54.87% of the games. A home team with a two-game rest advantage should be held to significantly higher standards: on average, they should control 52.64% of play, score 54.04% of the goals, and win 58.25% of the hockey games. It seems certain to me that the league would be privy to this sort of data and reluctant to put teams into positions where they are regularly at a rest disadvantage, but it’s still an important topic that should be considered when forecasting future outcomes. Rightfully, analysts spend a lot of time talking up the importance of home-ice advantage – the data bears this advantage out. However, this data suggests that rest is another critical, albeit less appreciated, factor for teams and associated performance. Discount Under Armour Shoes .C. -- Clemson celebrated a senior class Saturday that brought the program back as a national contender. Fake Air Force 1 . Austin does not believe the game-time temperature is going to be an advantage for either side heading into the Grey Cup. "We dont think about (the cold)," said Austin. "Im not even sure how you would determine an advantage. http://www.fakejordancheap.com/wholesale-air-max-270-china.html . -- Claudio Bieler hadnt scored since early September, and not from the run of play since mid-July.DETROIT -- Brad Ausmus is hoping hell have a chance to use every position player on his roster before too long -- no sense letting backups become rusty at the beginning of the season. "Yes, Id like to get them in," Detroits rookie manager said. "Mother Natures going to have a say in that." Sure enough, the Tigers had their game against the Kansas City Royals postponed because of rain on Thursday. The game will be made up June 19, when the Royals are back in town for what was initially supposed to be a three-game series followed by an off day. Detroit will move on to a three-game series against Baltimore thats scheduled to start Friday -- when the weather may not be much better. The Tigers are planning to push right-hander Anibal Sanchez back to Fridays start after he was supposed to face the Royals on Thursday. Rick Porcello is now slated to pitch Saturday, meaning left-hander Drew Smyly will be skipped in the rotation. Kansas City, on the other hand, will simply skip rookie Yordano Ventura, who was scheduled to pitch Thursday. Jeremy Guthrie will start Fridays home opener against the Chicago White Sox, as planned. Ventura will be available out of the bullpen. The Tigers won their first two games under Ausmus, scoring the winning run in their last at-bat both times. The new manager made a big move in Mondays opener, sending rookie Tyler Collins to pinch-run in the ninth inning of a tie game. Collins ended up scoring the winning run. Collins then started Wednesdays game in left field, but shortstop Andrew Romines first start was put on hold by Thursdays postponement. Outfielder Don Kelly and backup catcher Bryan Holaday havent played either. Now the Tigers face the prospect of additional postponements, and they have scheduled off days April 7, 10 and 14. It has the makings of a choppy start to the season. &qquot;You try to balance getting veterans rest and getting reserve players in, but when you have all these off days, the truth is the veterans probably dont need the rest," Ausmus said. Vans Outlet Clearance. "You still have reserves that need to get in, so it can be a little bit of a juggling act." Ausmus says hes settling into the Detroit area. As manager of the Tigers, hell have to deal with a certain celebrity status, and he says people recognize him. "I havent been around that much," Ausmus said. "Ive gone out to eat, but other than going out to eat, Ive kind of been holed up." The Thursday afternoon game was called about an hour before the scheduled first pitch, amid temperatures in the 30s and with significant rain expected. The decision to skip Smylys spot in the rotation came as no surprise. Its an easy chance for the Tigers to manage his innings as he makes the transition back to the starting rotation after spending last season in the bullpen. Detroits talented rotation has been on display already. Justin Verlander pitched the opener and Max Scherzer worked eight scoreless innings Wednesday. Thats part of the reason Royals manager Ned Yost isnt panicking over two losses in which Kansas City struggled to score. "Youve got to understand what youre dealing with," Yost said. "What weve dealt with here the last two days is Verlander and Scherzer. I mean, these are top-of-the-line pitchers in the American League, so theyre on most days going to shut teams offences down." At least the Royals were able to leave town without having to face Sanchez, too. "Hes nails, too," Yost said before the game was called off. "You just keep plugging until you start to get on track." NOTES: The Tigers claimed LHP Mike Belfiore off waivers from the Orioles and optioned him to Triple-A Toledo. 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